by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Americans saying
the Republicans in Congress would do a better job than the Democrats in Congress
of handling seven of nine key election issues. The parties are essentially tied
on healthcare, with the environment being the lone Democratic strength.
The Republicans' advantage on most issues is an indication of the currently
favorable political environment for the party. Of particular note is the parity
between the two parties on healthcare, an issue on which Americans
historically have viewed the Democrats as superior.
A similar USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in October 2006, just
prior to Democrats' major gains in that fall's elections, highlights the
potential implications of these findings. That poll, which includes several
issues measured in the current survey, found the
Democrats leading on all eight issues tested at that time, including some
usual Republican strengths like terrorism and moral values.
With Republicans now having the advantage on most issues, the party may be
poised to make major gains in congressional seats, just as the Democrats did in
2006. Indeed, Gallup tracking of registered voters' preferences in the 2010
generic ballot for Congress continues to find the
Republicans ahead of the Democrats, as it has for the past five weeks.
The Economy Matters Most
The Democrats' advantage on the issue of the environment is likely not
something the party can leverage to improve its 2010 electoral fortunes, as
Americans rank it at the bottom of the list in terms of its importance to their
vote. Rather, economic concerns are paramount, with a majority of Americans
rating the economy, jobs, and federal spending (along with government
corruption) as extremely important.
The Republican advantages on these economic matters range from a low of +5 on
jobs to a high of +15 on federal spending. Terrorism -- the issue on which
Republicans have the greatest advantage over Democrats -- is rated as very
important by 47% of Americans, putting it in the middle of the list.
Bottom Line
Republicans' perceptual advantage on most key election issues reinforces the
party's advantageous positioning heading into the stretch run of the 2010
election campaign. It is not clear whether Americans give the Republicans the
edge on these issues because they have confidence in the GOP to make progress in
addressing the major problems facing the country, or whether the ratings have
more to do with the public's frustration with the incumbent Democratic Party's
performance to date.
The Democrats' hopes for improving their fortunes may hinge on convincing
voters they have superior plans for jump-starting the economy, the issue of
uppermost importance in Americans' minds. That could be tough to do when, after
nearly 20 months of Democratic leadership in Congress and the White House, Americans'
opinions of the economy remain negative and have become more pessimistic in
recent weeks.
Explore more Gallup data relating to the upcoming congressional midterm
elections, including Gallup's complete generic ballot trend since 1950, in our
Election
2010 key indicators interactive.
Survey
Methods
Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone
interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults,
aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using
random-digit-dial sampling.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with
95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is }4 percentage
points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for
respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who
are cell phone-only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell
phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum
quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents
are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the
most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone
lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current
Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized
population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins
of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample
design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public
opinion polls.
View
methodology, full question results, and trend data.
For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit http://www.gallup.com/.